How To Use Race Analysis to Spot Winning Racehorses. Part 2
The essence of making a profit from betting on horses is largely tied in with spotting improvement in horses before the bookmakers, the pundits and the general public.
If this was easy to do then obviously you would already be doing it and you would all be in profit. Life isn’t that easy.
As you will have discovered once a horse wins a race or 2 this is reflected in its odds for the next race and beyond.
The secret is to identify horses who perform well against the odds.
They may not have won a particular previous race due to:
• Draw bias.
• Poor jockeying.
• Inconsistent pace.
• Incorrect race distance.
• Unsuitable going.
Similarly certain horses do really well in terms of the final result.
For example they may end up placed despite:
• Being held back leaving the stalls.
• Clattering a series of fences.
• Bad positioning on the rails or running too wide.
All such horses should be logged for future reference.
You will all be aware that many trainers run their horses over incorrect distance or incorrect going in order to qualify their horses for important handicaps while still carrying lower weights.
Other factors might include:
• Does a horse finish strongly? Maybe it could use a few more furlongs in its next race.
• Does it go off at a sprint only to fade towards the end of the race? Maybe it has run a few furlongs too far.
Either way make the notes. Excel is a great tool for logging and manipulating this data. Carefully analyze the distance of the horses next race.
Another option is to look for horses that have been obviously “slowed up”.
Sometimes referred to as “non triers” in the press.
RacingPost race reviews are extremely beneficial in this respect as is watching as much racing as possible.
Horses can be restrained in a race, they can be held back so as to lose ground at the start or by racing wide. Alternatively a horse can be forced to run at the front knowing that it is a fast finisher rather than a natural front runner.
Improvement and Class
Horses that run well above their usual class are also worth following, particularly when moved back to their usual class in the next race.
Often high quality horses can be “trained” at the less popular tracks in an attempt to disguise their true ability.
If the results they produce are genuine then this will be reflected in their RacingPost ratings.
If they are suddenly moved up to the class tracks at Cheltenham and Ascot then in all likelihood there is a reason for it that only the trainers and owner will know about.
If the odds given look generous then they must be taken.
When assessing 2 year old and other young horses, fitness in the paddock can be essential. Young horses have little genuine racing form that can be used to accurately judge potential.
Making a profit from racing investments.
Successful betting is not necessarily about finding more winners than losers.
Successful betting is about consistently taking bets where the odds on offer are higher than the horses true probability of winning.
The odds are subjective and the opinions are subjective.
Part of the RacingPost’s objective is to highlight horses which consistently promise but fail to deliver.
Some horses consistently place in races and are hyped before every subsequent race, but just cannot cross the line first.
Instinctively horses are pack animals. It is not necessarily in their instincts to win horse races for your punting pleasure.
You must be selective, you must avoid consistent losers, you must avoid horses that are consistently “over hyped” by the daily rags and you must do your own research and identify potential improvers.
Again, the RacingPost analyses will help you in this respect
There is an old adage that is so relevant to modern betting...
“Isn’t it strange how the harder i work the luckier i get.”
In Part 3 we look at pedigree, potential and breeding. I also outline the statistical indexes that you can use to measure speed and stamina.
In Part 4 we look at the benefits of paddock watching and how to visually examine a racehorse to spot a potential winner in advance of the media and the crowds.
Bet Fair and Bet Well.
Information about the Author:
Mike J Davies is a Horse Racing Expert, LSE Day trader, and a Betfair Trader and Advisor. Revealed! Guaranteed Profitable Betfair Horse Racing Secrets and Strategies at http://www.Betfair-Trade.com/.